Yep, I think it will - but it does depend on how you measure success. Would that be in terms of customer satisfaction or software sales?
I'd guess that satisfaction will be up slightly as Windows 7 works well, and it can interface with lots of thing out of the box. In terms of sales, it will probably smash through the XP sales as there are so many more PCs now (and people often have more than one PC in the household these days).
Time will tell